November 23, 1998 New Thinking:
Predications for 1999

  New Thinking Home

  Subject Classification
  Reader Feedback
  Subscribing
  Unsubscribing
  2006
  2005
  2004
  2003
  2002
  2001
  2000
  1999
  1998 
  1997
  1996

1. Information overload will become a central issue for the Internet in 1998, as basic search engines begin to lose their value.
2. Ecommerce will flourish in America and will show strong growth in Europe, with business-to-business transactions leading the way.
3. The Web will stay simple in 1998: lots of content, driven by databases, with small graphics, no gee whiz, and thus fast downloads.
4. By the end of 1998, the PC will have well and truly become a mass market product, with quality PCs selling for well under USD1,000.
5. Microsoft will find that there are limits to how large and
   powerful it is allowed to get.
6. There will be at least 150 million Internet users worldwide by the end of 1998.
7. The Internet will force many middlemen/distributors to transform their business models or face decline/liquidation.
8. Small pockets of high-bandwidth will exist but for the average consumer bandwidth will remain scarce.
9. Driven by child abuse, hate abuse, spam abuse and taxation issues, Governments will pay a lot more attention to the Internet in 1998, and a wide range of legislation will either be prepared or enacted.
10. 1999 will be the year when the Internet becomes truly mass market.

1999 Predictions

1. There will be more than 200 million people using the Internet worldwide. (The wider acceptance of set-top boxes for televisions could explode this figure.)
2. The 'World Wide' Web will look much less 'world-wide' as individual countries and cultures stamp their identity on it. This will result in the necessity to create multilingual versions of websites whose tone and business approach are founded in that particular culture.
3. What will destroy the myth of the 'World Wide' Web is bandwidth. The difference in experience of a user in a poor bandwidth country in comparison to a user in a rich bandwidth country will be like rich and poor; upstairs, downstairs; black and white; chalk and
   cheese.
4. The myth that it is cheap to develop for the Internet will be well and truly hammered, as companies realize that running a successful website requires quality staffing, ongoing development and substantial investment in promotion and marketing.
5. Branding will be everything on the Internet, as all but the largest of brand websites find it increasingly difficult to attract visitors.
6. Email will remain the killer application for the Internet but will cause serious headaches for organizations who do not have proper usage and storage/deletion policies.
7. The Linux operating system and open source software in general will grow in acceptance though it will by no means topple Microsoft.
8. Whether it happens in 1999 or not, Microsoft will have to be broken up. It has simply got too big, too all-powerful, and no matter what sort of public relations spin is put on it, this is not good for the consumer.
9. The computer industry, having learned from Apple that consumers like products that have style, will start bringing out computers that have a bit of visual flair.
10. Ecommerce, having become common in America, will gain ground in Europe, though the focus will still be business-to-business

Gerry McGovern


 

Next issue:  Outsourcing: involuntary suicide
Previous issue: The libertarian paradox
New Thinking homepage